Macroeconomic Effects of COVID-19 Across the World Income Distribution

نویسندگان

چکیده

The macroeconomic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were most severe for emerging market economies, representing middle world income distribution. This paper provides a quantitative economic theory why markets fared worse, on average, relative to advanced economies and low-income countries. To do so we adapt workhorse incomplete-markets macro model include epidemiological dynamics alongside key demographic characteristics that distinguish countries different levels. We focus in particular differences lockdown stringency, public insurance programs, age distributions, healthcare capacity, sectoral composition employment. calibrated correctly predicts larger output losses greater fatalities matching data. Quantitatively, especially poorly due their high employment share occupations requiring social interactions low level pubic transfers, which leads economically vulnerable households continue working rather than sheltering at home. Low-income relatively better mainly younger populations, whom are less susceptible disease, agricultural sectors, require fewer interactions.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: IMF Economic Review

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2041-4161', '2041-417X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-022-00182-8